The Florida Gators’ Billy Napier and the Miami Hurricanes’ Mario Cristobal both enter their Aug. 31 matchup with losing records through two seasons at premier programs. Napier is 11-14; Cristobal is 12-13.
The details of their rebuilding jobs — what they inherited and how much progress they have made — differ. But their early, onfield results are comparable enough to explore a question that applies to both teams and their fan bases:
How often do coaches with similarly slow starts at similarly proud programs turn things around?
The Tampa Bay Times explored 17 relevant historical precedents to find out. The good news: 11 of those coaches had winning records in Year 3. The bad news: Only two became major successes (though a third appears headed that way).
Here’s a look at some of the notable examples:
John McKay, USC
First two years: 8-11-1
Year 3: 11-0 (No. 1 nationally)
Beyond: 108-29-7
McKay sounded like Napier when he bemoaned close losses after a tight defeat to a rival at the end of Year 2; three of USC’s losses were by five combined points. But McKay vowed the next August that his Trojans would win more than they lost in Year 3 against what one newspaper called “one of its toughest schedules in history.” McKay won them all to claim his first national title. He won two more and shared a fourth with Oklahoma in 1974 before becoming the Bucs’ coach.
Randy Shannon, Miami
First two years: 12-13
Year 3: 9-4 (No. 19 nationally)
Beyond: 7-5
A carbon copy of Cristobal: 5-7 in Year 1 at his alma mater, a top-10 recruiting class in his first full cycle and 7-6 with a bowl loss in Year 2. Shannon tapered off in the recruiting rankings, then plateaued on the field. He underachieved in his fourth year and was fired hours after an overtime loss at home to USF.
Rich Rodriguez, Michigan
First two years: 8-16
Year 3: 7-6
Beyond: None
His record improved each of his three seasons, but, like Napier, he struggled against rivals. Rodriguez went 0-6 against rivals Ohio State and Michigan State (average margin of defeat: 18.8 points). An NCAA investigation didn’t help, and Rodriguez was axed after a 52-14 bowl loss to Mississippi State in Year 3. His .405 winning percentage remains, by far, the worst in Wolverines history.
Stay updated on Tampa Bay’s sports scene
Subscribe to our free Sports Today newsletter
We’ll send you news and analysis on the Bucs, Lightning, Rays and Florida’s college football teams every day.
Loading...
You’re all signedup!
Want more of our free, weekly newslettersinyourinbox? Let’sgetstarted.
Explore all your optionsMike Norvell, Florida State
First two years: 8-13
Year 3: 10-3 (No. 11 nationally)
Beyond: 13-1
Norvell’s slow start comes with a COVID asterisk. The pandemic hit Norvell and other coaches hired in the 2019-20 cycle harder than their established peers. That’s because limited contact slowed everything from spring practice to culture-building opportunities to recruiting. Would Norvell have won more in Year 1 or 2 with a normal first offseason? Regardless, he adjusted by becoming a master of the transfer portal and narrowly missed the playoff last season.
Mike Shula and Mike DuBose, Alabama
First two years: Shula (10-15) and 11-12 (DuBose)
Year 3: 20-5 (combined)
Beyond: 9-14 (combined)
Both won 10 games in Year 3 but were out after a poor Year 4. DuBose started in the top five, dropped a home game to UCF and became the first ‘Bama coach in almost half a century to lose all three non-conference games. Shula went 6-6 with a loss to Mississippi State, and his dismissal cleared the way for the Crimson Tide to hire Nick Saban.
Charlie Strong, Texas
First two years: 11-14
Year 3: 5-7
Beyond: Nothing
The 2016 Longhorns have a lot in common with 2024 Florida: a veteran quarterback alongside a talented freshman, a defense that, as ESPN’s preview said “has to get better” and a handful of new assistants. Texas lost its penultimate regular-season game to Kansas, and Strong was fired at the end of Year 3. USF hired him two weeks later.
Ray Goff, Georgia
First two years: 10-3
Year 3: 9-3 (No. 17 nationally)
Beyond: 27-18-1
Goff rebounded from a slow start with back-to-back top-20 finishes but slid into three more mediocre seasons. Gators legend Steve Spurrier called him “Ray Goof” and hung half a hundred on his Bulldogs in their two final meetings. He was pushed out at the end of the 1995 season.
Johnny Majors, Tennessee
First two years: 9-12-1
Year 3: 7-5
Beyond: 100-45-5
Majors pulled a Jimbo Fisher — leaving a school where he won a national title for another college job — to return to his alma mater. He didn’t lead the Volunteers to a national championship but won the SEC three times. Though Majors’ 116 wins rank third in program history, his tenure ended poorly with assistant Phillip Fulmer usurping the job.
Butch Jones and Derek Dooley, Tennessee
First two years: 12-13 (Jones) and 11-14 (Dooley)
Year 3: 13-11 (combined)
Beyond: 13-10
Dooley didn’t make it through Year 3; he was fired with one game left after a 23-point loss to Vanderbilt. His successor, Jones, had back-to-back nine-win, top-25 seasons but never won anything more than the Outback Bowl or his self-proclaimed “championship of life.” He was fired in 2017 after a 4-7 start (including the Gators’ last-second touchdown from Feleipe Franks to Tyrie Cleveland, now called the “Heave to Cleve”).
Honorable mention
Gerry Faust started 11-10-1 at Notre Dame and has the program’s third worst winning percentage ever. … Nick Saban went 12-11-1 at Michigan State and didn’t break through until a top-10 finish in Year 5. He had slightly more success in later stops at LSU and Alabama. … Jeremy Pruitt — a former ‘Bama coworker of Napier and Cristobal — was 13-12 through two years and fired amidst an NCAA investigation after a 3-7 third season.
• • •
Sign up for the Sports Today newsletter to get daily updates on the Bucs, Rays, Lightning and college football across Florida.
Never miss out on the latest with your favorite Tampa Bay sports teams. Follow our coverage on Instagram, X and Facebook.
